clubgowi

2016 – 2017 was a very entertaining season, with Nice imposing the rhythm in the first part, and Monaco and PSG stepping on the gas after the winter break. We all hope the new season will be even more disputed, but most probably it will be dominated by Monaco and PSG. At first let’s say a few words about the other teams that will compete for a place in Europe: Lyon: If you follow Ligue 1, you surely know the defensive phase is by far Lyon’s major weakness. Last season fullbacks concentrated exclusively on the attacking phase, and it wasn’t very difficult for opponents to take Lyon by surprise. Only experienced defensive midfielder Gonalons provided assistance once in a while. That is why in-spite finishing 4th, Lyon were 10th when it came to goals conceded. Gonalons transferred at Roma now, and it will be interesting to see how Lyon will cope with his absence. Besides Gonalons, Lyon also lost midfielders Tolisso, Valbuena, and top scorer Lacazette. Lyon transferred-in a few high profile attacking minded players: Marcal, Traore and Mariano Diaz. Fullback Marcal came from Guingamp, where he was a constant presence in the attacking phase. In-fact Marcal was Guingamp’s best passer with 7 assists. Striker Traore arrived from Chelsea, while Dominican forward Mariano came from Real Madrid. Lyon also transferred a central defender, who is not afraid to advance, and usually scores a few goals each season. Marcelo arrived from Besiktas where he found the net 3 times last season. He scored 7 goals at most in a single season, while playing for Wisla Krakow in 2009. Even if Lacazette and Valbuena are gone, you should still expect to see goals when Lyon play (even their central defenders will score goals). Marseille: Marseille was one of the most inconsistent sides last season. They easily went from one extreme to the other, from creating 20 opportunities in a single game, to barely having a decent attempt on target. One possible explanation is that they relied on some of the most “difficult” players in France. Thauvin, Payet and Gomis were by far Marseille’s most important players last season. All of them are very individualistic, difficult to motivate and usually have a superstar attitude (this is why all of them failed in Premier League). On home ground they were more determined, more combative, but in away games they always gave up after losing the ball. Maybe this is why Marseille won only 4 away games last season. Now they will once again rely primarily on wingers Thauvin and Payet… Striker Gomis is at Galatasaray now, while experienced forward Germain arrived from Monaco. Germain seems like the best option for playing between wingers Thauvin and Payet. He is always at the right place, has great ball control and was respected by teammates everywhere he went. Marseille transferred-in another two important players: defender Adil Rami from Sevilla and defensive midfielder Luiz Gustavo from Wolfsburg. Both of them are reputed players with proved skills, and most probably will have a guaranteed place in the lineup. Keep an eye on midfielders Lopez and Sanson. They try to take charge when Payet and Thauvin refuse to participate. Sanson was Ligue 1’s best passer last season with 12 assist, while Lopez delivered 6 assists. You should expect Marseille to crush many opponents on home ground (cover the handicap), but once again to have major difficulties in away games. Nice: Nice was a pleasant surprise last season, especially before the winter break. They were very courageous and inventive, but unfortunately the squad was thin and some reserves were at Ligue 2 level. There wasn’t anybody to replace striker Balotelli when he was injured or suspended, nobody to replace midfielders Belhanda and Seri, or fullbacks Dalbert and Pereira. Nice were also very unfortunate, as many players suffered frequent injuries. Talented striker Plea for example was injured for most of the season, same as midfielder Le Bihan. Nice have an exuberant playing style, a few highly skilled players (Balotelli, Seri, Plea), but no depth. This summer they lost fullback Pereira and midfielder Belhanda, both of them important players. Most probably they will also lose winger Eysseric, as many European sides are after him. Without a few important transfers, Nice won’t be able to repeat last season’s performance. So far only experienced fullback Jallet arrived from Lyon. As the season progresses, Nice will lose energy and will have difficulties coping with determined opponents, especially since they will also be involved in European competitions. Bordeaux: Overall Bordeaux had a decent season, even if they increased rhythm only after the winter break. Defenders are very agile and it is extremely difficult for opponents to take them by surprise. This summer Bordeaux lost important keeper Carrasso, but immediately replaced him with Costil from Rennes, who was considered one of the best keepers in Ligue 1 a few seasons ago. Skilled fullback Mendy also arrived from Guingamp. Mendy is a versatile and solid player, with great vision and ball control. He even managed to score 3 goals for Guingamp last season. Fullbacks Sabaly, Mendy and Contento are very powerful players, and they can easily give Bordeaux an edge over many opponents. Bordeaux’s midfield also looks very good, with experienced Toulalan in the center providing constant assistance for defenders, and skilled Sankhare initiating attacking actions. The only problem seems to be in the attacking phase, as although there are plenty of options, they don’t have a striker with killer instincts. Last season they used a 4-3-3 system, but all forwards felt better in the winger position. In comparison to last season, Bordeaux lost forward Ounas who went to Napoli. Bordeaux made a great deal, since Ounas wasn’t an important player, and hopefully the transfer fee will be put to good use (1o million euro). The only attacking player who arrived so far is versatile winger Wellington from Fluminense. He’s got European experience (England Championship and La Liga), but unfortunately so far he never delivered according to expectations. Bordeaux can easily end up fighting for the 3rd place, especially if they will eventually find a solid striker. Expect Bordeaux to be able to put together impressive series of positive results. St Etienne: Statistics perfectly illustrate St Etienne’s season: 12 wins – 14 draws – 12 defeats. There is nothing special about St Etienne. Although they usually keep possession, they always struggle to create chances and find the net, even on home ground. They have a new coach now, Spaniard Oscar Garcia from Salzburg. He is very experienced and should add value at St Etienne. But first things first, they need new and talented players in all departments. Until now there is only one notable transfer, striker Diony from Dijon, but the fee paid is simply huge (around 10 million euro). Without reinforcements St Etienne won’t be able to compete for European positions, and will once again be just a mediocre Ligue 1 side. Lille: Lille were a major disappointment last season. Only late in the season they managed to escape the relegation zone, after making a few impressive transfers in January. So far they lost two important players, fullback Corchia and forward Lopes, and it will be really difficult for Lille to find replacements, especially since they are wasting money on mediocre players. They bought forward Pepe from Angers with 10 million euro (mostly on the bench last season). He is a decent player, but certainly not worth that much, regardless his age (only 21). Fullback Malcuit arrived from St Etienne for a huge fee (around 9 million euro). He was a major vulnerability for St Etienne last season, and it’s no coincidence that most of the goals conceded by St Etienne originated from the flanks. It seems that Lille is Ligue 1’s new cash cow. Another disappointing season shouldn’t be excluded, and Lille may once again finish in the lower half of the table. Taking all the above in consideration, this is how the table may look (only the first 5 places, without PSG and Monaco): 1. … 2. … 3. Bordeaux 4. Marseille 5. Lyon From all contenders for European positions, Bordeaux seem to be the most consistent. Bordeaux to finish top 3 at around 13.00. You can also find Bordeaux to finish top 4 at around 5.50, if you want extra safety. Please note the transfer window will close at the end of August, so there is still time for all sides to strengthen. Now let’s focus on the title winner, the goalscorer and the best passer… The rest of the preview is available only to our subscribers. If you sign-up for the full season you can Save 20% (or 60 euro). You can see some of our Ligue 1 previews from last season on our site http://lg1.fr , and you can join our LGF newsletter here: http://www.clubgowi.com/subscribe-to-clubgowi

Ligue1: Angers - Nantes ANGERS Angers put up a really poor performance last week away at Nancy. Only Nancy managed to create decent scoring opportunities, and in the end the 2-0 victory was well deserved. Away from home they are too submissive, and accept opponents’ dominance without any fight. On home ground they are more combative, more aggressive, especially after poor results started piling up (only 2 points in the last 5 rounds). They are conceding 2 goals per game lately, and if defenders won't get their act together, there's no way but down for Angers. At the moment they are very slow, and can't anticipate opponents' next move. At least they are able to score, thanks to fast forwards Diedhiou and Toko Ekambi. Bad news for Angers as first keeper Michel and important central midfielder Mangani will sit out (mostly the defensive phase will be affected). At least they welcome back fullback Manceau from suspension. NANTES Nantes' game against Caen last week got postponed because of heavy fog. Maybe it is better this way, since Nantes were in terrible form and low on confidence. A couple of days off never hurt anybody, and it gave new coach Conceicao enough time to know the players. They haven't scored in 4 rounds, and even if there are plenty of attacking options available, something was just not clicking. Nantes have decent players available, and some of them even have impressive potential. Unfortunately they never learned to play together, to be a team, and ex coach Girard is the one responsible for that. But there are signs of improvement after the arrival of coach Sergio Conceicao. Except the forced changes (because of injuries and suspensions), coach Conceicao used the usual lineup in the midweek Cup game against Montpellier. Although players were the same, their attitude was different, the combativeness was at maximum levels, and Nantes looked like they could score every time going forward (won 3-1). This is exactly what they needed, a change in attitude, and the future looks bright with this kind of approach. Guests will miss midfielders Thomasson, Kacaniklic and Toure, but welcome back defender Vizzcarondo, midfielder Rongier and forward Bammou. BETTING At a first sight this looks like a tricky encounter, but with Nantes’ change of attitude and Angers’ need of points (and leaky defense), this can easily turn into a goal fest. Neither side has been very productive lately, that’s why we get huge value on goals. OVER 2 GOALS at 2.06 from Clubgowi LGF newsletter

Premier League: Manchester City - Watford Not much we have actually seen recently suggests that City should be 1.25 to win this. They were a defensive shambles against Leicester City on Saturday evening and sorely missed the protection of Fernandinho (last five PL games he has missed have produced 21 goals), who is once again suspended, along with Aguero (last five he has sat out have produced 24 ). Watford are coming off a nice 3-2 win over Everton where they could have scored a couple more, but are equally as unreliable at the back and have shipped nine, in their last two road starts, also allowing a whopping 20 attempts on target. Guardiola will be demanding a reaction from his men and it could all click and they will run in hatful, but hard to see that coming along with a clean sheet at present. The hosts have to find a way to win, or they could be nine points plus adrift of Chelsea and under huge pressure for the visit from a wounded Arsenal at the weekend, think the best way to approach this is....... Manchester City to win and both teams to score 2.50-2.70 general quote ...............best alternative, over 3.5 goals from Clubgowi newsletter

Premier League: Bournemouth - Liverpool We spoke so much last season about the open nature of Bournemouth home games, we have not seen that to quite the same level this season. but that has more to do with how teams have set up when arriving at Dean Court, Manchester United came here and played their part in a four goal thriller and we know 100% that Liverpool will not be coming to sit back, it is simply not in their DNA under Jurgen Klopp. The Cherries went toe to toe with Arsenal at the Emirates last weekend and were in things and gave as good as they got for 90 + minutes and will need no second invitation to get forward this afternoon. No Coutinho for the visitors, but Lallana and Firminho should be fit to play. Andrew Surman remains out for Bournemouth and whilst we have not seen it yet, the defensive midfielder (ever present for over 25 months since joining until October) is very important to them and his absence will be felt today with Liverpool so good at pressing and moving the ball quickly. BTS , Liverpool to win. over 3 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket Both teams to score and Liverpool to win 3.10-3.25 general quote from Clubgowi newsletter http://www.clubgowi.com

Championship: Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United Incredibly, given they lead the Championship, United lost at home for the third time this season last weekend, they also lost at Hull City on penalties in midweek in the League Cup with a much changed team, but it is only about getting back to the Premier League for the Magpies. On the road they are 7-1-1 and have been scoring at the rate of two per game, they seem happier away, where they get a little more freedom and teams are not raising their game playing in famous old St James' Park, the biggest stadium and crowd many Championship players will have faced. Forest can only really play one way, their games have produced an average of 3.56 goals (1.05 above the divisional mean) and they are urged forward by the crowd here and are too gung ho at times. Both teams have scored in the last 11 Championship games at the City Ground and, in all competitions, they have not kept a clean sheet in 14 , conceding 2.0 per game and allowing 3+ on five occasions ( 35.7%). Given that percentage and that United are top scorers in the Championship and will probably need 2+ goals to win, the visitors look good value at 3.50-3.60 (circa 28%) to score three or more. The hosts do not have many "going" days, but are coming off two , back to back road wins scoring seven goals, when they do, they can be unstoppable, but usually for 30-45 minutes, not 90 ! This should be entertaining. Newcastle United to score three of more 3.50-3.60 general quote...........there is 3.70 in places. "over" 3 goals 2.40 asian line/Sportmarket from Clubgowi newsletter

NBA: Charlotte Hornets - Detroit Pistons I’m a bit surprised that Pistons receive such a high regard here, being given only +3 points on the spread. The reason probably is that they have had a day more rest than Hornets, who are back-to-back. The b2b factor is weighing less and less in present day NBA though, with all the medical attention players receive, plus the general schedule this season is way lighter than in the last years. The rest can’t really compensate for Pistons terrible road form. They have only 1 win in 9 road games so far and are just not the same team, at home and on the road. Charlotte boosted their win column with 2 nice wins over Memphis in a home-and-home series and will be eager to build on that. Only Marvin Williams stays inactive for them with injury, the other players with minor knocks played normally against Grizzlies. Charlotte won 3 of 4 against Detroit in last season series, including both games here. Anything else bar another home win would be a surprising result here. Hornets average around 2 rbs. per game more than Detroit (rebounding is presumably one of Motor City boys strongest sides behind Andre Drummond) and around 10 (!) pts. more on the offensive end. Recommendation: Hornets -3 Odds: 2.02 from Clubgowi basketball newsletter

NBA: Sacramento Kings - Oklahoma City Thunder The line is set about right, maybe only a point or two bigger than it should be. Yet I see decent chances this game develops into a shootout, something like 120-115 for one of them. Both team’s strength is not the defensive part of the game. Kings usually make entertaining home games as their fans (and even their owner) very much prefer to see wins like that 120-115, instead of 100-95. Demarcus is hungry for points to his statistics as always, no need to mention that, but even Rudy Gay remembered his old days like one of the leagues’ elite one-on-one scorers lately. Thunder lost disappointingly at LA against Lakers. Their defense wasn’t on the required level and it will be tested tonight again. At the same time, Westbrook is relentless, he attacks the rim again and again, almost single-handedly made a near come-back in LA. 3 of the 4 meetings in this series last season finished well over this total. Recommend: OVER 213 Odds: 2.00 from Clubgowi Basketball newsletter

NBA: Sacramento Kings - Los Angeles Clippers I wondered back and forth in circles as to which is the higher percentage play here, Clipps to cover 8 points spread or OVER. LA are expected to bounce back after the surprising home loss from Memphis. At the other hand, I wouldn’t say Clipps are as strong mentally team as Spurs, Cavs or Warriors, for example. Sacramento win here will be a surprise, yes, but not a total shock. And I doubt eventual Clippers win will come as easy as odds suggest, unless Cousins starts arguing with the refs and gets thrown out or make another stupid thing. He played well in last season series with Clipps by the way, recording something like 22+ pts. and 12+ rbs. on average. This very much suits his psychological profile, he is eager to compete and measure his skills with the best big men in the league, just like DeAndre Jordan. So I expect a committed performance by DeMarcus. Actually, these teams surpassed this total line in all 4 meetings last season. There is a perfect explanation for the lower line here though. Clippers play one of the best (if not the best) defense in the league so far. They have the biggest points differential in the league with almost 15 pts. Margin between points scored and allowed on average. This is of course unsustainable for a whole season, albeit Doc Rivers and his boys deserve full credit for the job on the defensive end in the off season. Yet Kings lost quite narrowly, 105-110, to San Antonio in their last game here in Sacramento. I see pretty good chances they surpass the hundred mark once again, which would mean a winning play most probably. Recommend.: OVER 205 Odds: 2.01 from Clubgowi Basketball newsletter

World Cup Qualifiers: Northern Ireland - Azerbaijan Azerbaijan are unbeaten through three group games and have yet to concede, keeping clean sheets against both Norway and the Czech Republic and holding a surprise second place in Group C behind big favourites Germany. It is only the second playoff spot that is realistically up for grabs and the visitors would take a very firm grip on it, were they to win in Belfast. Northern Ireland are not exactly full of goals and the absences of Stuart Dallas and Jamie Ward lessen their offensive threat and without Ward, the Irish are an incredibly bad 1-9-16 in the last six years, the win coming over the Faroe Islands and that sequence included a 1-1 home draw with Azerbaijan. They have been starting with Josh Magennis up front, with Ward in the secondary role in recent games, Magennis had just 28 goals in the SPL in five seasons and is hardly banging them in regularly for Charlton Athletic this season in the third tier of English football (a goal every 400 minutes) and it is easy to make a case for Azerbaijan keeping the Irish fairly quiet. A goal for the visitors should be enough for a point (aside from against San Marino the Irish have only scored more than one in 2 of 12 starts) and they might not even need that and this game feels like it has been priced wrongly and based on what was perceived as a strong Euro showing for Northerm Ireland, where they actually lost 3/4 and they have failed to score in six of their last eight starts. Azerbaijan have two teams in the group stages of the Europa League, with domestic champions Qarabag, who supply eight of this squad, in good position to qualify and this is clearly a footballing nation on the rise. Azerbaijan +0.5 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket from Clubgowi newsletter

NBA: Milwaukee Bucks – New Orleans Pelicans Recommendation: Bucks - 5 Odds: 1.87 I think I’ve made myself clear enough, Pelicans will be one of the weakest teams this season. Actually, they are front-runners to be the worst team in the league and to guarantee themselves the best chance to win the lottery. It’s still very early for intentional tanking, they are still very bad and don’t possess deep enough NBA-ready roster besides Davis. The bench situation is even more dramatic, pretty naturally. Bucks already took the first win in this season’s series, a week ago in New Orleans, and will actually clean sweep Pelicans with a win tonight. Milwaukee come off a 3 days rest tonight, fresh and motivated to continue they good home form with a 4th consecutive victory here. They play way more freely at home. The last 2 wins here were quite good and comfortable ones, over Sacramento and Indiana. Milwaukee have more than enough big bodies to throw at Davis on the defensive end. It will be a total surprise if they don’t have the rebounding edge too. All in all, I can’t see New Orleans stopping Bucks from scoring buckets tonight, so hopefully the mid spread won’t prove to be a problem from Clubgowi Basketball Newsletter

Checkatrade Trophy: Sunderland U23 - Notts County Hosts are in with a point, County need to win. The visitors will surely be up for a visit to the Stadium of Light, even in front of one man and his dog, five of their six league wins this season have come on the road . Head coach John Sheridan said:"I don't expect the crowd to be big, but it's a beautiful stadium and it's a lovely pitch to go and play football on."It's a game we want to win, and hopefully the players will go and do that. "We know if we win we go through. "The players know that."Not many people will know much about their players, but I went to watch them against Rochdale and they've got some good, bright, young players."Technically they are very good and it will be a good test for us. "But we will have more experience and hopefully we can affect the game the way we want to."At Premier League academies they get all these luxuries – it's a different world."But I think they will respect coming up against the teams from League One and League Two, they will realise it's a tough old game."It is totally different to academy football and I think it's good for the younger players from Premier League clubs to see what it takes to earn a living at that level. It says a lot about Sheridan that he personally travelled five hours on a midweek night to watch future opposition in this competition and he is not going to put in that kind of effort and not demand at least the same from his players and they should make their experience tell. Notts County +0.25 ball 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket from Clubgowi newsletter

Golf PGA: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Wide open leaderboard with 20 players within four stroke of the lead. I only want to discuss one of those, Geoff Ogilvy, he was a seven time winner on Tour between 2005-2010 when he simply oozed class , winning the US Open and finishing top six in all four majors. He has won just once since then , in 2014, but before you feel too sorry for him, he has banked $40m+ in prize money alone. Still only 39, he should have double that number of wins. However, class is permanent and you might get out of the habit, yet rarely totally forget how to win. When he won in 2014, he nearly followed up a couple of weeks later at a big playoff event and whilst we have seen little of him at the top of the leaderboard since, he finished 2016 with a couple of eyecatching finishes (this is technically a 2017 tournament........... don't ask !). He shot a Sunday 63 at the Canadian Open in July and in August was 67-68 over the weekend at the John Deere and 68-66 at the Wyndham. He has played the back nine in -11 this week, which is as good/better than almost everyone and if he can reach the turn within a shot or two of the lead, he could turn back the clock today. 39 is that funny age, golfers should not really be having a stellar or comeback year at 29 or 39, it ought really to come at 30 or 40, once you have got the "trauma" of that milestone birthday out of the way. But when chances for Ogilvy come along rarely nowadays, I think we have to forget that, anyway, his wife just turned 40 and maybe that will provide the inspiration and knowledge that life just keeps rolling on ! He likes the hot dry weather and lives in the desert, so should be happy here in Nevada and his last win, came at the Barracuda Championship in this state, so omens are good. We can "waste" a little at big odds............ Geoff Ogilvy to win outright 17.0 general quote...........there is a little at 17.5/18.0 on Betfair from Clubgowi newsletter

NBA: Washington Wizards – Toronto Raptors Recommendation: Raptors -1 Odds: 1.952 Odds seem almost like a trap here, with Toronto being the far classier side. Wizards have a negative expectation for this season, compared with the last one, but they still have to win some games, linger around the 9-10th place in the East and wait for next summer free agents market. This is their home opener actually and John Wall and Co will find some motivation to perform well in front of their fans. It’s one thing to plan and desire something and another thing to make it happen though. Toronto swept the season series 4-0 last season. They might not repeat this feat, it’s hard to do it twice in a row with a semi-competitive team, but 3-1 seems like a legit result for the season. Washington experience much difficulties when playing against opponents with strong backcourt (like Raptors, quite obviously). I am not a fan of Wizards’ perimeter defense too and hope Lowry will finally catch some fire and knock down some 3’s, while slowing down Wall on the defensive end. All in all, I see this game as Toronto’s win to lose, let’s see from Clubgowi Basketball Service

Champions League: Borussia M. - Celtic Celtic were run ragged in the first leg and lost 2-0, the magin of defeat should have been greater and aside from their performance at home to Manchester City and England-Scotland match ups do have a different dynamic, they look some way short of the quality required to compete at this level currently . Kolo Toure made two horrendous mistakes, he will miss today's game, which might well be a bonus for the visitors, but the loss of left back Kieran Tierney most definitely will not be. The youngster is ever present this season and described by most watchers as their best defender . With BMG surely looking again to press and harry Celtic into mistakes and the Scottish champions with no option but to attack and that is the only way they can play, when you win 77% (last four seasons) of all league games, you have little experience of setting up defensively. They need to win this to get back into (at least) Europa League contention and BMG will be similarly minded as three points is going to guarantee EL football and would actually take them above Manchester City and up into second, unless the Premier League leaders also beat Barcelona ( see below). BMG will be stronger tonight than for the first leg, Celtic will not sit back too long and should be even more vulnerable defensively and one goal, should see this get very stretched. "over" 3 goals 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket from Clubgowi newsletter

Brazil Serie A: Sport Recife - Ponte Preta Huge game for Sport, they have three of their next four on the road, including trips to two teams battling for Copa spots and sit just two points above the drop zone, with the teams immediately above them in the table having started to pick up their game(s) and points. I have spoken many times about how difficult a venue this is, Recife is a very long trip for almost every team in Brazil ( 5,400 km round trip for PP) and once here, conditions are often stifling and you are asked very different questions by both mind and body. I have no evidence, but I bet there have been a few yellow cards collected on purpose over the years, so that players miss this trip to play Sport. By the way, PP top scorer Roger sits this one out after picking up a yellow in the last game !! The hosts have a 60.27% home win record over the last four seasons, which even in a country where homes "always" run north of 50% is very impressive and to give it some context, is identical to that of Cruzeiro, who are two time champions over the same period. Ponte Preta still have a small chance of top 6, but 11 of their 13 wins have come at home and they will have to gamble a little more than usual on the road today and that should play into the hands of Sport. The visitors have not won here in recent times and have conceded seven without scoring on their last three away days and anything other than three points for Recife would both surprise and leave them in trouble. Sport Recife -0.75 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket from Clubgowi newsletter